The Tadami Flood, Fukushima, July 2011

Destroyed bridge on the Tadami railway line below Honna dam above our village

As if it wasn't enough, communities already very worried by the ongoing releases of radiation from the stricken Fukushima Daichi nuclear plant were struck by record rainfalls at the end of July. Over the 72 hours until midday on Saturday 30th July, 700mm (27.5 inches) of rain fell in 72 hours in the Tadami area of Okuaizu, western Fukushima. At least 4 people died, 6,400 people were evacuated from their homes, and 500 people were cut off by floodwater, including those downstream from Tadami like our community in Kaneyama and in Yanaizu.

Our street (photo from council website)

The damage was worst in Tadami town, 30km up river, with many houses completely destroyed. Everyone on our street, only a few metres from the river, lost everything on the first (ground) floor. Rice fields and allotments that people had worked hard on were destroyed. Apart from the fact that most residents are more than 70 years old and it hit them very hard, it is sad that so much family history was lost. Over and above having your home full of mud, most painful for many people was loosing the Butsodan, the Buddhist  shrine to the family ancestors which keeps them a living presence in the home and provides continuity, sometimes over hundreds of years. Some of the houses were like domestic museums. The framed photos of the more recent dead were fortunately above the floodline. You can imagine them looking impassively down from near the ceiling as the water rose towards them. If the ancestors have seen anything, they have seen it all over the centuries, and floods have come and gone. The portrait I drew of my next door neighbour survived, and so did he, but he had to spend the next few weeks in hospital after damaging his shoulder in the clear-up. He will have been so frustrated not to be able to continue helping with the cleanup.

Below Honna dam concrete river banks were breeched, washing away house foundations and destroying rice fields and allotments.

So why did it happen? Floods are as old as water itself, and of course global warming has been accompanied by extreme weather around the world, often much worse than this in scale and casualties. But this was an 'accident' waiting to happen, and one that was a whisker away from being very much worse. Living a few metres from the river, I was very aware that flooding was a risk. This is true of any river, but there are five dams upriver from the village, the one at the top being huge. I was told that executives from Tohoku electric who own several of the dams had been doing the rounds post 3.11 trying to salvage the reputation of nuclear power -  a lost cause in Fukushima of course. Apparently they were asked if there had been any checks on the dams following the huge earthquake of 11th March. No, no extra tests, but they were sure everything was fine, and there was no risk. Of course if lots of people asked for tests they supposed they could do them. Extraordinary, and very reminiscent of the complacency of Tepco.

Concerned, we had also visited the Kaneyama council offices in May on returning from our temporary self-evacuation. As well as pressing them to urgently buy their own radiation testing equipment, instigate more detailed testing for food and soil, to source school meals from safer areas of Japan, and to draw up a plan for the emergency evacuation of children in the event of further explosions at Fukushima Daichi, I raised the issue of flood risk. I asked them what the evacuation plan was, to tell us what the warning siren sounded like, and where we were supposed to go if there was a problem. No response. I also personally raised it with the Mayor, who lived on our street. No problem , no problem. No radiation risk, and the dams were safe. Big smiles. Oh really? After a major earthquake and many aftershocks, with no extra structural checks, and no practice drills or information for residents?

Destroyed rail bridge above our house. The blue plastic covers a landslip beneath a neighbour's house

Often woken up in the night by aftershocks, I lay awake half expecting to hear the rush of water. Would we get a warning? We discussed what we would do, and I told my son to run fast for the mountainside, even if he was on his own. As it turned out I was away from home, and frustratingly I wasn't able to be there to help during a very frightening night waiting from a friend's house to see how high the water would get. The local fire and disaster volunteers thankfully did a great job of getting everyone out of their houses promptly, not letting anyone linger to save possessions, which must have saved some casualties. They have my deep respect and grateful thanks. This can't have been easy with so many elderly and frail residents, some of them bedridden.

Destroyed bridge at Yokota. Residents on the right bank had to be helicoptered to safety

After the flood it began filtering through that it was the opinion of many, through family members working on the dams, that bad decisions may have again contributed to disaster. In this case it is possible that the early and gradual release of water building up from the extreme rainfall  could have prevented the flood. This was reputedly delayed in order to keep generating electricity as long as possible. Then when it was clear that danger levels were fast approaching, the sudden release possibly added to severity of the flooding. Could it be that pressure to keep generating electricity while most of Japan's nuclear reactors are shut down contributed to this delay? No doubt they were 'following the manual.'

A very dangerous element was added in the shape of a chain of several large, yellow, iron barges used for dredging that swept down the valley smashing bridges  and damaging dams as they went. One dam could no longer use one of it's gates after it was struck.  Local opinion was that legally these should not have been in the river in the wet summer period for this very reason - they should only have been used in the winter, when there is less of a flood risk as all the moisture falls as snow. It seems that some of the workers at one of he the dams thought there was a serious risk of a dam failing completely, as they ran away. It must have been truly terrifying, especially when the barges hit.

Bridge carrying main road up the valley smashed at Yokota

It also emerged that the council' evacuation plan did not take into account that a dam might fail. When the dams were built any houses by the original course of the river were moved to at least 3 metres above the new water level, including ours.  Residents and the council were told that a serious flood was now 'Impossible.' Again, sound familiar? So guess where the evacuation moved people to? Unaccountably, an old aged persons' home by the river, only slightly higher than the problem areas, despite the availability of various large buildings nearby in the mountains, like the Ski Centre.  If a dam had actually failed there would have been a large number of deaths. As dam failure began to look possible there was a frantic attempt to  move the people who had been taken there somewhere else. This strange plan echoes what could be called the 'evacuation into slightly less danger' policy taken by the prefectural authorities, who have built emergency housing for evacuees from inside the 20km zone around Fukushima Daichi as near as 35km away - in Iwaki.  Again, this is hard to understand when there is a choice. Iwaki is an area many families have chosen to self-evacuate away from due to the elevated radiation levels.

A home left hanging over space

Luckily, the worst did not happen, though the following weeks were very tough for everyone, camping out on their top floor without kitchens or bathrooms, and beginning to tackle the horrendous smelly mess that any flood leaves in its wake. Difficult for anyone, but particularly exhausting for the majority in their 70's and older.

For us, it was the last straw. We had been trying to hang on to living in Fukushima despite the daily worry for the long-term health of our son, because of our love for the people and the place. Not having a functioning house, and realising that the riverside location was no longer tenable in the long term, it gave us the push to make the move away that was inevitable but wrenchingly sad.

There was still no sign of the necessary radiation safeguards and protections being put in place for children, still far too big a gap between information from the authorities and that available from independent sources, still difficulty in sourcing food from other areas of Japan with much lower radiation, and still no sign of transparency or clear food labelling, just more of the same simplistic 'It's safe' propaganda. Not good enough. And when it rained, the radiation levels beneath our eves were 50% higher, meaning that releases were still continuing. After all that worry it would have been ironic indeed if it had been hydro-electricity that had finished us off.

Flood debris and wrecked graves in the family plot, Nishitani

We will probably never know the degree to which human error, both in institutional form or our own addictions to energy intensive comforts, contributed to making this, and other floods like it, worse. It was certainly the worst in living memory along the Tadami river, and some of the elders said that before the dams were built it was never as severe. Because of the way the energy market is organised, people never even saw cheaper electricity for the extra risk they accepted. That is something that could change if hard-fought reforms wanted by the majority are achieved and micro-generation owned by communities is viable. 50 years ago when the dams were built people wanted to contribute to the modernisation of Japan. For us, as for many people in Japan, the recent disasters have washed away more than just houses. They have eroded trust in the government and institutions that are supposed to protect us and our children, just as they have proved once again that individual people and communities will rally round and work wonders in supporting each other and clearing up the mess in times of dire need. If only we could get better at stopping it happening in the first place.

With especial thanks the family that provided emergency accommodation on the night of the flood and looked after my son while we were cleaning up the house. Also thanks to everyone who came to help with the clear up or checked to see that we were all right - we will never forget! We think about everyone in Kaneyama every day.

Fukushima children's art project

9 year old Fukushima child's anger and sadness at Fukushima Daiichi

I'm sorry I haven't been able to post anything for quite some time. I have given most of my spare time to my new project Strong Children, and our house has just been flooded out by the Tadami river for goodness sake! Life was obviously getting too simple here in Fukushima. 

Strong Children consists of portraits of Japanese children and young people living with the ongoing consequences of the Fukushima Daichi nuclear accident, the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami of March 11th 2011. Please take a look. The images are designed and made by the children, with words too if they wish. I add their portrait according to their instructions - they choose the pose, facial expression, colour and feeling. The aim is to enable them to share their important experiences and thoughts with the world at this crucial time. It is a collaboration, but they are the boss.

In my view children need an appropriate setting that gives them permission and safety to express a whole range of emotions and thoughts. That includes fear, sadness, grief and anger sometimes, as well as happiness and the more socially acceptable cute and joyful aspects of childhood. 

I also want to create a channel for them to reach the world and get feedback, and to affect the policies that shape and limit their living conditions, health and happiness. This completes a positive circle they can feel proud of and empowered by. Finally, no record of important historical events, or thinking about energy choices or ethics for that matter, can be complete without including children - even if it is just seeing the marks they make, and looking into their eyes as they gaze from a portrait.

If you would like to support or help exhibit, publish or disseminate the project, please contact me

Write for Tohoku ebook available

The Write for Tohoku ebook is now available from http://fortohoku.org/

It is 295 page collection of pieces by people who have been touched, changed, or just plain amused by their experiences of this unique country, with many pieces about Tohoku itself including places affected by the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster. You will wind up knowing a lot more than you did before about Japan behind the headlines if you aren't very careful.

It is a veritable bargain at $9.99 (£6.20 approx), and all profits go to the Japan Red Cross relief effort. Spread the word. And I'm not just saying that because a piece from Living in Aizu is in it obviously...

The frog in boiling water

Returning to the nuclear threat from Fukushima Dai-ichi*

What have they done to this beautiful country? Waking to a different world

It is now four weeks since the man-made Fukushima Daichi nuclear disaster, born of greed and arrogance, began. I haven't posted recently because I am too sad and angry, and I didn't know what to say. We left Fukushima-ken four days later after two explosions and a lack of credible information. We have returned to our home 133 km (83 miles) west of the plant after three weeks of keeping our son safe in Hiroshima (of all places) and Kyushu, where we visited, you guessed it, Nagasaki.

It tells you everything you need to know about this beautiful place that we have come back at all, to at least try living with these horribly new circumstances, in what for so many in Japan is an utterly changed world. This community has been so good for our son, and we feel a strong bond even after just two years. There is more information now, and it seems that Oku-Aizu may, so far, be the least affected area of Fukushima-ken. And yet the picture is far from complete. 

We have daily local air readings for microsieverts per hour, but only outside the council offices, not across the area. The one-off reading by our son's school 400m away was double this, albeit still low.  We have no local details breaking this down into amounts of iodine 131, or caesium 137 if any, and no soil testing yet. It isn't clear what effect the remaining snow or the structure of the mountains will have. Are they protective in some way, or could they lead to pockets of concentration? Should the snow be cleared off allotments and rice fields, or left to melt?

Information is inconsistent and contradictory. There appears to be no internationally uniform way of describing risk or radioactivity in a way intelligible to most people. Different figures are given using different measures over different time scales. Relating them to each other is near impossible for the non-specialist. There is particular confusion around short term versus long term risk, with dubious comparisons to things like medical x-rays and international flights being offered. The results of exposure to very high levels seem reasonably well understood, but long term chronic exposure to small amounts over years much less so. I have yet to find anyone among my friends and acquaintances who feels that they understand it, and it thus comes down to who do you trust? The answer, for many Japanese, is nobody any more.

There is also a gap between information and risk assessments in Japan and abroad. Foreign governments, scientists and engineers and the media often have a different or more pessimistic view and there has been much criticism of TEPCO.

The more you read about radiation risks, the wider the disagreements appear to be - across media pundits (independent or otherwise), governments, and most worryingly even the scientific community. The latter are quite poor at making themselves intelligible to the general public. Behind the scenes connections with industry, government, ownership and funding are not made clear, making it difficult to know to what extent the information is being distorted, selected or withheld for financial, strategic, or political reasons. No subject is completely free of this. No doubt behind the scenes the cost-benefit relationship, between how risk is presented and future compensation claims, and the future of the nuclear industry is being calculated. That is just what very big organisations often do.

We are trying to persuade the council to buy testing equipment for the air, soil, water and food, as we all urgently need reassurance that we are not putting our children at risk - with a big, comfortable margin of error, not a 'probably' or 'maybe'. For example the wild vegetable (sansai) picking season is nearly upon us and people are going to start feeding them to their children. There is currently no way of getting them tested. 

Tourism and the sale of produce is also dead in the water without transparent and credible local testing of exactly the thing that people are using or eating.  But local government has the reputation for being change averse and very slow, and because its workers have secure jobs they are less likely to see the urgency of taking pre-emptive steps to preserve the many small producers, accommodation and onsen businesses that will go under. The way that Japanese education stamps out individual flexible thinking will also be an obstacle in responding quickly and effectively to this crisis. As I put it in a previous post, 

The ability to respond creatively to change is the best insurance in an uncertain world. Fixed curricula with little chance to discuss, ask challenging questions, or freely explore each others minds, do not provide this.

Change is inevitable, and attempting to predict it is risky. Training children to accept and follow rigid patterns based on an assumed future, rather than to innovate solutions for any situation, risks condemning them to struggle and redundancy. 

Institutions, like some individuals, are still in denial about just how changed things will be and are trying to cling on to their routines.

We had a magnitude 7 earthquake this week which caused worrying problems at Onagawa nuclear power station, as if we don't have enough already. There was another 7 magnitude quake today, and the constant aftershocks are really fraying everyone's nerves, and frightening the children. I ran downstairs during today's quake to check on the my son and his two friends. There was no sign of them in the front room, until I realised they had all managed to squeeze underneath the small, low, heated table (kotatsu). Apparently they threw their PSPs and Nintendo DSs in there first - imagine that on the Titanic. You can tell they were scared, because he claims they didn't continue playing them under there.

In the first four days of the crisis the image that haunted me was that of people watching the tsunami approach before they had reached safety - people were screaming 'Run! Run!' But they were mesmerised by its power like rabbits in a car's headlights. We moved because we needed to break that spell. We were, I think, right to do so. 

Some friends say we should stay away, others that it is important to keep it in proportion and listen to credible reassurances. We moved back because our life is here. The radiation test numbers seemed better,  school was starting, and there was a job interview. The disciplined Japanese 'group mind,' in its warmer aspects and remarkable community solidarity is a wonderful thing,  as you will have seen from responses to the tsunami, and draws you in.

The image that is haunting me now, though, is the hopefully apocryphal 'frog in boiling water' experiment. They say that if you put a frog in boiling water it will jump out. But if you put it in cool water, then slowly heat it up, it will stay in there until it cooks. I hope it isn't talking about us.

Update: since writing a Nature magazine editorial reinforces my points regarding information and makes me feel better about my confusion!  

*Please note, the above is a description of my current thinking as an individual assessing risk for my family and is based on web reading. I am not a specialist.

西日本の緊急住宅情報

English version
あなたや子供達の安全のために、現状が回復し危険リスクが減るまで 、福島県または東北地方を離れたいとお考えですか？　そのために役立つ情報はご存知でしょうか？
地震、津波、原発事故で避難を余儀なくなれている方々に、安全な西日本の多くの県が短期滞在のための住宅を用意し始めています。避難勧告を受けた人は、一年間無料の住宅提供、食糧、器具、福祉のサポートが受けられるようです。国の定めた避難地区、または震災により帰る所を失った人たちが優先されます。また、それ以外の区域の方達が、ご自身の判断で安全なところへ移ることも可能です。県によって様々な対応がなされていますが、下記の例があります。

1. 自分の行きたいエリアの市や県に連絡する。例えば、西日本。Link
2. 緊急住宅問題の課に連絡する。例えば、住宅管理グループ。そして、現在の自分の状況を説明する。
3. もしご自身が優先順位から外れていると言われた場合、その地区のNPOセンター、または小規模のNPOネットワークに連絡をする。Link
4. 自治体からのサポートが得られなかった理由を電話で説明し、NPOに交渉を手伝ってもらう。または、その地区のNPOで手助けをしてくれるところや、ボランティアでホームステイさせてくれるところの連絡先を教えてもらう。
   

広島県の場合
広島市内に１年間無料の住宅を１００戸、用意しています。詳しくは広島県のウェブサイトに載っています。
http://www.pref.hiroshima.lg.jp/page/1300357651489/index.html

連絡先の詳細：

1. 住宅管理グループ：電話番号０８２−５１３−４１７１、現状を説明して交渉して下さい。
2. 広島NPOセンターが、あなたをサポートしてくれるNPOを見つけてくれるかもしれません。電話番号０８２−５１１−３１８０
3. ウェブサイトhttp://www.npoc.or.jp/index.php?%A4%D2%A4%ED%A4%B7%A4%DE%A3%CE%A3%D0%A3%CF%A5%BB%A5%F3%A5%BF%A1%BC
4. NPO　西城さとやま交流館が、被災者証明がなくても受け入れて下さいます。（広島市から北東に約１００キロ）
5. 電話番号０８２４−８２−７１７１
6. クリスチャン教会は少人数の受け入れを考えてくれています。電話番号０８０−３１２５−０６９０、しん様宛て。

今後、自治体、NPO、ボランティアが東北からの子供連れの避難者、特に避難勧告は出ていなくても原発から遠くない人々の短期滞在住宅を準備してくれることと思います。そのためにも、あなたに何が必要かを伝えましょう。

English version

Do you need to leave Fukushima-ken or Tohoku because of the nuclear accident or earthquake and tsunami?

Japanese

Are you afraid for your children or yourself, and want to leave Fukushima-ken or somewhere else in Tohoku until the situation improves and the danger is reduced? Do you know or work with people who may need accommodation or respite? 

Many prefectures in safer areas like West Japan are now offering temporary accommodation to evacuees and those made homeless by the earthquake, tsunami, or nuclear accident. This may be free for up to a year, and food, equipment, and welfare support may be on offer for official evacuees and those made homeless in some areas. Evacuees from official zones, and those made homeless by earthquakes and tsunamis have priority, but help for others who make their own decision to move to a safer area may also be available. Details vary from place to place, but here is an idea for what to do:

1. Contact the City or Prefecture office in the area you want to go to, for example in West Japan (List of prefecture and city homepages - most have English pages)
2. Ask for the department offering emergency accommodation, for example the housing management office. Explain your situation and ask for help.
3. If they say that you do not meet their priorities, ask for the NPO support office number for that area, or similar NPO network (list of NPO support offices in Japan)
4. Phone them and explain that you have been refused official help, and ask them if they can negotiate for you, or if there are any NPO’s arranging help or volunteer hosts in the area – get their contact details and contact them.
   

Example: temporary help in Hiroshima
The city is preparing  apartments (100 so far today) free for 12 months: here are the details on the Hiroshima-ken government site

Contact details:

1. Hiroshima housing management 082 513 4171 to negotiate for help based on your circumstances
2. Or the Hiroshima NPO support centre will help you find other NPO’s who can help. TEL 082-511-3180
3. An example of an NPO (100km NE of Hiroshima) offering help without criteria: Saijosatoyama Koryyukan: tel: 0824 82 7171
4. A Christian church who may be able to offer hosts for a few families: Reformed Christian Church: Mob: 080 3125 0690 (Shin-san)

As time goes on and immediate critical needs have been met, it is likely that government, NPOs and volunteers all over Japan will provide more help and temporary accommodation for people with children who arrive from Tohoku, and especially near the reactor. Keep asking so they know what people’s needs are.

If you have any corrections or other useful information that you have verified to be correct, please post it in a comment
Japanese

Children at risk near the Fukushima Daichi nuclear accident, Japan?

While now safe with my son in Hiroshima, we are still extremely concerned for everyone in Fukushima-ken, in particular the people, and especially children, living near (but outside) the official 30km evacuation zone, and we are working hard from here to help.

The American government has recommended a much bigger 80km evacuation zone. Inside that 80km area are many small towns and villages, but also Iwaki city just outside it (population 344,000), and Koriyama City, with a population of around 340,000. It is only about 60km (36 miles) west of the accident.

See map with example centres of population and their distances from the accident

We all hope that the incredibly brave, heroic workers fighting to save the plant are successful in avoiding the much larger release of radiation that would follow full meltdown of one or several of the six reactors in close proximity, and material in unprotected storage ponds, all affected by each other. We also hope that the more optimistic in a wide range of expert assessments are correct, that is to say that even if it comes to the worst, there will be no immediate risk outside the plant and the 30km evacuation zone. One described it as essentially "a local incident." I really hope so, though ineveitably this has now been upgraded to "an incident with wider consequences." But my personal view as a lay person with a deep affection for Fukishima-ken communities is that all along assessments have proved in fact to be too optimistic, from the design choices made in the building of the plant, to Tokyo Electric`s announcements, to the evacuation area. This is also view of the man who was in charge of the Chernobyl clean up.

This week I met a nuclear power worker travelling home to see his family before going to work at the Fukushima Daichi power plant. He said that we had been right to leave, and that he `expected it to get worse next week.` We think he had probably been given permission to say goodbye to his family and knew there was a chance he might not survive. The way he smiled at my son was heartbreaking.

Imagine everything going as wrong as it possibly can - it has so far. Can anyone really be sure that 6 reactors interacting at their worst, with sustained release of material including plutonium from controversial mox fuel, combined with strong landward winds and the fall of rain and snow, will not combine to create an unprecedented event?　Surely `hope for best but prepare for the worst` is sensible. I am very aware of the huge pressure on government systems caused by the tsunami and earthquakes and the extraordinary scale of the logistics involved. I am also incredibly appreciative of everything that is being done already by countless hard pressed and exhausted officials, NPOs and citizens, who are struggling to decide priorities.

For example, Hiroshima City has offered to accommodate anyone from the 30km evacuation zone from Tuesday 22nd March. They will also accommodate anyone whose house has been destroyed from a very wide area including all of Tohoku, Hokkaido, Kanto, Koshin etsu in Yamanachi-ken, Nagano, and Niigata.

However amidst all this great work I am afraid that one group has been forgotten. The children and families outside the current 30km zone, but within, for example the American`s 80km zone, and with no significant mountain barrier between them and the plant, should be provided with transport to safe accommodation until the plant is stabilised. Children seem to be affected more quickly than adults by radiation of specific kinds (Iodine) because of their un-developed thyroid glands, so it needs to happen quickly -  before, not after the event.

Preferably government should do it, but if not then NPOs and volunteers could do a little. To these ends I am at the Hiroshima Peace Cultural Foundation in the Peace Park at ground zero, who have been very helpful and supportive with facilities, information and their channels of communication, which will hopefully bear some fruit. I have lobbied Hiroshima-ken (a branch of local government), and been interviewed by a journalist with the Chugoku newspaper. I have also contacted an NPO network arranged to deal with the crisis, tried to find local people to be host families, and asked all my friends and contacts to send money or food to help in the aid effort in general. I was contacted by the BBC while still in Kaneyama-machi, and spoke on a World Service's TV programme. I don't think anything has changed as a result yet.

Hiroshima City, with it's tragic history, has a unique understanding of what Fukishima's communities are going through, and I have no doubt will respond with any help they can offer. Hiroshima has just offered to accommodate anyone from the 30km evacuation zone from Tuesday 22nd March. They will also accommodate anyone whose house has been destroyed from a very wide area including all of Tohoku, Hokkaido, Kanto, Koshin etsu in Yamanachi-ken, Nagano, and Niigata. However, this does not yet include the group I am referring to, and at the least volunteer hosts will be needed, moving on to transport and lobbying official permissions if more is possible.

At the moment the parents we have spoken to are very afraid and confused, not trusting official information, and often without anywhere to head for even if they could find gasoline or an air or bus ticket for the few services left. Those with jobs are afraid of loosing them if they leave without permission, and life is continuing as normally as possible, with schools open, but no food in the shops or gasoline. What happens if you take your children out of school? What happens if you leave with nowhere to go to and no evacuee ID?What will people think of us afterwards if we leave?

Many areas of Fukushima-ken, far from evacuating, are actually receiving and looking after homeless evacuees from further north. The prefectural government has told our mayor that it is too busy to think about anything other than what central government is asking it to do. People need realistic options, and fast. They need to be encouraged to take them, to overcome the highly admirable Japanese social behaviour that in this situation, while preventing dangerous panic, can also be a barrier to sensible precautions.

If you are reading this and have any links that might help with anything, from offering aeroplanes (!), to links with Hiroshima groups, to future support or expertise for Kaneyama-machi, my small mountain community whose economy will probably be ruined whatever happens, please get in touch. Please forward this to people. My mobile number is ++81 (0)80-417-44847, but, only use this for something practical. Please use comments for anything non-urgent.

I don't yet know what can happen, if anything, as when it comes down to it I am just a foreigner with limited Japanese and a buggered laptop that has refused to connect to the internet for the last two days. I don't know if I am doing the right things, and am afraid of muddying the waters and adding to difficulties. But being safe and wrong is better than being over-confident and wrong. In any case any links I can make now will hopefully be of use to my home area Kaneyama-machi and Fukushima-ken as a whole in the future.

What we  really need is some definitive and reliable good news from Fukushima power station, to make all  our worries look stupid. Let's hope events are overtaken by us soon - it has been the other way so far.

Thanks for reading, yours in hope, Geoff

The BBC has summarised various views of the worst case scenario at 16th March:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12789749

This is the BBC's summary of health risks from radiation
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12722435

This is the World Health Organisation information on the Japanese radiation risk
http://www.who.int/hac/crises/jpn/faqs/en/index4.html.

Not enough news on the Fukushima nuclear crisis

The internet and phone lines in this area are now back on line after two days. The main problem for us is that there is a lack of up-to-date information to enable us to make a decision about whether to move or not. For example, information has been given an hour or two later, even though there have already been some leaks, two explosions, and four reactors are still at risk of meltdown. They are currently being cooled with sea water and they say they don't know if this will work or not. There has been a partial meltdown already. The nuclear reactions were automatically shut down, which was not the case in Chernobyl. Over the weeekend information appeared to be being controlled by the private company that owns the facilities, and the atomic safety spokesman appeared to be simply passing this on, blanking any tough questions from the media with stock phrases, like "We need more time to research information before we can answer that."  There has been no update on TV for a while, and the vital information about wind direction and weather forecast is not being updated live. The New York Times is giving a more worrying picture.  Although there are online lists of which roads are closed, it is hard to assess the risk of landslides and avalanches on routes through the mountains.

In case you live near a nuclear facility, this is the kind of treatment you can probably expect in the event of a problem, no matter what bland assurances you are given beforehand. No doubt all over the world the nuclear industry is as I write preparing statements about how this is a unique event, and in any case their designs are different, newer and safer, and they will apply everything learned from this incident to ensure that it can never happen again. Until the next time.

People locally are continuing as normal, which is admirable. They feel safe because this area is relatively safe in terms of earthquake. The nuclear risk does not seem to worry them, perhaps because trust of government is high. For example we just asked our son's school is someone there is monitoring warnings on TV. They are not.

The shops here have food for now and people usually have a lot of food for the winter, but we have just heard from relatives that shops in northern suburbs of Tokyo are now empty of food, and petrol has run out. This is possibly because oil tankers are diverting until the threat of further tsunamis is over. This means that leaving the areas threatened by the nuclear emergency by this route is much more difficult, as you could end up stranded in the car with no petrol and little food available. Once south west of Tokyo it might ease. The Japan sea side of Japan is apparently less affected by shortages, but how long this will continue we don't know. The numbers of people in greater Tokyo mean that things can spiral very quickly, although it seems stable at the moment.

There is no reliably safe option for what individuals should do, and it is hard to know whether to trust information we are given, which makes it especially difficult to decide.

Good luck to everyone.

Please note this post is written based on TV reports and what relatives are telling us - if you are in Japan please refer to other sources. 

Fukushima nuclear reactor emmergency

The latest news is that there have already been some leaks from Fukushima nuclear power station. Radiation levels 1,000 times normal have been found at at least one place in the plant, so previous announcements that there had been no leak were inaccurate. No surprise there. The authorities have announced that they are venting radioactive steam from 9am. A second reactor 20km away from the first now has the same problem. The only good news for those on the mainland is that the wind is currently blowing eastwards, out to sea. However, it is in the nature of radiation that this may just means bad news for someone else later. I feel for the technicians who have to put themselves at risk to deal with this, and really hope that they succeed in averting a further major disaster. 

This is further evidence that nuclear power is not the solution for our energy needs, especially in earthquake areas of the world. This design was described by the government as the most earthquake proof in the world, but it has failed. Yet there are ongoing plans to  build more. In Japan hydro and solar generation seem far safer and very practical solutions. Having said that, we are living in a low lying area of the village beneath a series of hydro-electric dams built in 1958. At least if they go, the damage will be limited in area and time, and the energy is relatively clean and cheap. Rather death by an attempt at clean power than something that will poison the land for generations.

As well as the extensive tsunami damage all along the Pacific coast, three cities containing thousands of souls were completely inundated by the ocean. Casualty figures are irrelevant at the moment because of the impossibility of collating them over the whole of Japan at the same time as responding to numerous local emergencies.  We just have the examples of people we know, and thankfully everyone seems well. My friend Iwata-san walked north for six hours from his office in central Tokyo and reached the emergency shelter near his home where his daughter was volunteering. They spent the night there. He said the streets were flooded with people. My wife's mother spent the night awake on some station steps, and as I write at 9.30am is on a train, which is now stuck somewhere. She should get home soon.

My wife stayed up all night, unable to sleep, and there was another big aftershock based on Nagano at 4am. Her brother in Kawagoe near Tokyo said that there were so many shocks he ended up not knowing whether the house was still shaking, or it was just his dizziness. I slept fitfully, but wasn't aware of it. All of Japan is at risk of another big shock, but especially Tokyo, which is near the meeting point of five tectonic plates. There is in any case a high likelihood (estimated at a 50% risk), of Tokyo having a major quake in the next 50 years. As anyone who has visited Tokyo will know, it doesn't bear thinking about.

The news last night showed people bedding down on cardboard sheets in the stations, and escaping to Shinjuku Chuo park, where I have drawn the portraits of homeless people many times over the last ten years. I wonder if their sometimes critical attitudes will change when they have experienced what homeless people have to do every day. It could go either way, either leading to greater empathy, or to a greater rejection through feeling threatened by proximity. After the Kobe earthquake which killed 6,400 people, I heard that homeless people were chased away from the emergency aid stations. "No, you were homeless before the earthquake, it is not for you!"

However, I have found the great majority of Japanese people, like people everywhere, to be kind and supportive, and very communally minded, especially older people. The amazing stories of heroism and selflessness from this disaster will go some way to softening the pain of the next few weeks as the real picture emerges.

Many thanks to everyone who has got in touch to check that we are OK   

Watching towns burn

Whole areas of Kesenuma in Miyagi prefecture in Tohoku are burning, people's lives going up in smoke, watched by anyone who was able to make it home. It is painful to watch the playing over and over again of images of destruction, but we need to watch out for fresh warnings, and sleep doesn't seem possible. If you aren't accustomed to earthquakes you might think that it is only falling buildings that are the problem, but there are many other dangers. It is often the fires that break out that are more destructive, and the ground can even liquify into mud. This has been a day no-one in Japan will forget.

You have probably seen the tsunami videos by now, and terrible though that has been there is perhaps a greater long term risk posed as a result by the Fukushima Daichi nuclear power station which was built right by the pacific ocean on the Fukushima-ken coast, and therefore right in the path of tsunamis. Earlier today we watched the huge waves batter it. It is now reported to be in a state of nuclear emergency declared due to the failure of a pump in the cooling system which is vital to control the reactor following the emergency shut down. The evacuation zone was initially 3km, with an emergency team said to be on their way from Tokyo, but this has since been increased to 10km. We have packed bags with clothes and food for if it comes to the worst, depending on the wind, and we need to leave.

The Japanese earthquake and tsunami

I really feel for the lives that must have been lost or ruined in this afternoon's huge earthquake, at 8.8 the biggest since 1900. Now night has fallen, which will hamper rescue efforts, and it is snowing across the north of Japan. The aftershocks are still shaking the house every now and then and could continue for a month. They say there could even be another big one. I was upstairs teaching drawing, and we were disorientated like everyone else. When the ground shakes it is so unnatural that even natives who have grown up being trained what to do get confused. We got under the kitchen table as the house swayed, feeling sick, but as it continued we realised it would be better to get outside as there are open spaces here. All the stoves and the gas had to be switched off, and the doors opened in case they jammed.

The neighbours were all outside, but motorists continued to drive past as you don't notice the ground shaking in a car. Looking around at the mountains, it was inconceivable that all that enormous mass was shaking. We may as well be bacteria for all the effect we can have on the power of the earth. Eventually we went back in and watched the television and the unbelievable pictures of ships, whole houses, cars and wreckage being tossed around like toys in a bath by the tsunami.

Fortunately the local primary schools have only just been reinforced for earthquake, and my son is back home now, blanking out his fear with Pokomon on his DS. We are lucky, and it is good to be with family. On the television are burning gas facilities, collapsed and flooded houses, and people huddled in cold sports halls and community centres. Worse will be to come as the toll becomes known, and we find out how successful Japan's relatively thorough preparations have been, and which of the various attempts to make earthquake-proof buildings have worked.